Rising Tides in a Buyer’s Ocean – Why I Predict a Vancouver Real Estate Market Boom | Michael Friedman

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Real Estate

Rising Tides in a Buyer’s Ocean – Why I Predict a Vancouver Real Estate Market Boom

For Vancouverites accustomed to breakneck real estate growth, 2023 felt like a cold bath. Higher mortgage rates poured onto the market, chilling sales and pushing us firmly into a buyer’s domain. But as a mortgage professional with decades in the trenches, I see a different tide rising on the horizon. Buckle up, folks, because I predict 2024 will be a seller’s bonanza.

My optimism isn’t wishful thinking. It’s built on solid ground, reinforced by the following trends:

1. The Rate Rollercoaster is Slowing Down: The Bank of Canada, after a whirlwind of hikes, has finally hit the pause button. This signals a stabilization in mortgage rates, a crucial first step for buyer confidence to rebound.

2. Bond Yields: Sweet Music for Borrowers: Canadian bond yields, the bedrock for fixed mortgage rates, have begun their descent. This translates to slowly decreasing fixed mortgage rates, making homeownership more attainable for many who were previously priced out.

3. Rate Cuts on the Horizon: While the timing remains a crystal ball game, most economists agree that the Bank of Canada will resume rate cuts by Q2 of 2024. This will act as rocket fuel for pent-up demand, propelling us back into a seller’s market.

4. Newcomers Pouring In: Canada’s ambitious immigration policy is no secret. With 1.2 million newcomers expected by 2024, demand for housing is poised to skyrocket. This influx of young, working professionals will be eager to put down roots, creating a perfect storm for a seller’s paradise.

5. Vancouver’s Supply Squeeze: Even a slowdown hasn’t cracked Vancouver’s notorious housing shortage. The construction industry simply can’t keep up with past and future demand. This chronically low supply will ensure competition remains fierce, benefiting sellers.

6. History Repeats Itself: Remember the dot-com crash? Rates skyrocketed, then plummeted, followed by a record-breaking housing boom. We’re witnessing similar trends today, suggesting 2024 could mirror that exuberant recovery.

Of course, the future is never set in stone. Economic curveballs can still be thrown. But based on the evidence at hand, I stand firm in my conviction: Vancouver’s real estate market is poised for a dramatic shift in 2024. Don’t get caught off guard by the rising tide. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s talk strategy.

This blog is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional realtor, mortgage broker and financial planner before making any financial decisions.

1- Bank of Canada Rate Announcement: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/
2- Canadian Bond Yields: https://www.bmo.com/main/about-bmo/investor-relations/fixed-income-investors
3- Economist Rate Cut Predictions: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/tiff-macklem-interest-rates-october-2023-1.7008952
4- Canadian Immigration Policy: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html
5- Vancouver Housing Supply Shortage: https://www.bc-er.ca/data-reports/data-centre/
6- Historical Housing Market Trends: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/info-and-advice/market-reports-and-surveys/regional-market-updates/