Michael Friedman — Premier Mortgage Advisement
Mortgage Minute The forces moving Canadian mortgage rates, in sixty seconds, and what they mean for your clients.
Michael Friedman Michael Friedman
Mortgage Broker · Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way 604-657-1684 · michael@michaelfriedmanamp.com · michaelfriedmanamp.com
On My Radar

Canada's economy grew 3.3% last quarter, its best showing since early 2023, and Statistics Canada also revised the first quarter upward — meaning the recession everyone was bracing for never actually happened. Before anyone panics about rates, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to sit still on September 2nd, so prime stays at 4.45% and your variable-rate clients won't see a change. The real pressure on fixed rates isn't coming from Canada at all — it's coming from the new U.S. Fed chair, who signalled Friday that his next move could be a rate hike, and American bond yields pull ours up with them. Fixed rates have crept up roughly 15 basis points in three weeks, which is a slow grind rather than a spike, so get your buyers a 90-to-120 day rate hold — it costs them nothing and caps their downside either way.

GoC bond yields and economic indicators

Why these matter: Government of Canada bond yields are the main input lenders use to price fixed mortgages, so fixed rates tend to track them over time.

Current Rate Ranges Variable to 5-Year Fixed 3.44% – 4.44%

There are thousands of unique combinations of loan types, terms, and lender programs; a buyer’s exact rate is customized to their specific situation. The daily Rate Ranges give you a reliable baseline, but we always run the actual scenario to give your clients an honest, precise, personalized quote.

Implied Probabilities (BoC)
Next meeting
Sept 2nd, 2026
Odds of move: 3%
Implied move: -25 bps
Following meeting
Oct 28, 2026
Odds of move: 19%
Implied move: +25 bps
Market-implied chances of a Bank of Canada rate move at the next two scheduled meetings, with the implied change in basis points. Derived from overnight index swap pricing. As of August 28th , 2026.
Collaborative Marketing Resources

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Prestige Club Top 2% 2025 Champion Hall of Fame Award Elite Hall of Fame Award Dominion Lending Centres

Michael Friedman, Mortgage Broker , Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way. Licensed in BC and Alberta.

604-657-1684 · michael@michaelfriedmanamp.com · michaelfriedmanamp.com

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