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Mortgage Minute
The forces moving Canadian mortgage rates, in sixty seconds, and what they mean for your clients.
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On My Radar
Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, its second straight monthly decline, and unemployment rose to 6.5%, erasing this year’s job gains. This was the Bank of Canada’s last labour report before its October 28 decision, and a print this weak makes a rate hike much harder to justify. Fixed rates have still been climbing with the Bank on hold, because the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield pushed above 3.6% this month and the best insured 5-year fixed is near 4.34%. If bond yields ease on today’s news, that’s a good window to lock buyers into a 120-day rate hold, and I’m happy to set one up for any of your clients.
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Why these matter: Government of Canada bond yields are the main input lenders use to price fixed mortgages, so fixed rates tend to track them over time.
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Current Rate Ranges
Variable to 5-Year Fixed
3.60% – 4.89%
There are thousands of unique combinations of loan types, terms, and lender programs; a buyer’s exact rate is customized to their specific situation. The daily Rate Ranges give you a reliable baseline, but we always run the actual scenario to give your clients an honest, precise, personalized quote.
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Implied Probabilities (BoC)
Next meeting
Oct 28, 2026
Odds of move: 38%
Implied move: +25 bps
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Following meeting
Dec 9th, 2026
Odds of move: 100%
Implied move: +25 bps
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Market-implied chances of a Bank of Canada rate move at the next two scheduled meetings, with the implied change in basis points. Derived from overnight index swap pricing. As of Sept 25th , 2026.
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Collaborative Marketing Resources
The Upsizer Smart Move Campaign
A ready-to-run client campaign for move-up buyers: a five-email sequence plus supporting pieces that walk a homeowner through the move-up decision — the idea, the math, a client story, and a soft introduction to mortgage planning. Built for you to deploy to your own database, end to end.
Click here to learn more →
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Michael Friedman, Mortgage Broker , Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way. Licensed in BC and Alberta.
604-657-1684 · michael@michaelfriedmanamp.com · michaelfriedmanamp.com
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