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Mortgage Minute
The forces moving Canadian mortgage rates, in sixty seconds, and what they mean for your clients.
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Michael Friedman
Mortgage Broker · Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way
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On My Radar
July's jobs number blew past expectations (+75,000, unemployment down to 6.4%), and bond yields jumped on the news — the 5-year GoC is sitting around 3.25%. That's upward pressure on fixed rates, not downward. Variable is going nowhere: the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% and prime stays 4.45% through September 2. Watch Monday the 17th — July inflation is the next number that moves anything.
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Why these matter: Government of Canada bond yields are the main input lenders use to price fixed mortgages, so fixed rates tend to track them over time.
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Current Rate Ranges
Variable to 5-Year Fixed
3.60% – 4.55%
There are thousands of unique combinations of loan types, terms, and lender programs; a buyer’s exact rate is customized to their specific situation. The daily Rate Ranges give you a reliable baseline, but we always run the actual scenario to give your clients an honest, precise, personalized quote.
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Implied Probabilities (BoC)
Next meeting
Sept 2nd, 2026
Odds of move: 1%
Implied move: +25 bps
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Following meeting
Oct 28, 2026
Odds of move: 36%
Implied move: +25 bps
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Market-implied chances of a Bank of Canada rate move at the next two scheduled meetings, with the implied change in basis points. Derived from overnight index swap pricing. As of August 11th , 2026.
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Collaborative Marketing Resources
The Upsizer Smart Move Campaign
A ready-to-run client campaign for move-up buyers: a five-email sequence plus supporting pieces that walk a homeowner through the move-up decision — the idea, the math, a client story, and a soft introduction to mortgage planning. Built for you to deploy to your own database, end to end.
Click here to learn more →
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Michael Friedman, Mortgage Broker , Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way. Licensed in BC and Alberta.
604-657-1684 · michael@michaelfriedmanamp.com · michaelfriedmanamp.com
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