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Mortgage Minute
The forces moving Canadian mortgage rates, in sixty seconds, and what they mean for your clients.
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On My Radar
Canada's economy grew 3.3% last quarter, its best showing since early 2023, and Statistics Canada also revised the first quarter upward — meaning the recession everyone was bracing for never actually happened. Before anyone panics about rates, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to sit still on September 2nd, so prime stays at 4.45% and your variable-rate clients won't see a change. The real pressure on fixed rates isn't coming from Canada at all — it's coming from the new U.S. Fed chair, who signalled Friday that his next move could be a rate hike, and American bond yields pull ours up with them. Fixed rates have crept up roughly 15 basis points in three weeks, which is a slow grind rather than a spike, so get your buyers a 90-to-120 day rate hold — it costs them nothing and caps their downside either way.
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Why these matter: Government of Canada bond yields are the main input lenders use to price fixed mortgages, so fixed rates tend to track them over time.
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Current Rate Ranges
Variable to 5-Year Fixed
3.44% – 4.44%
There are thousands of unique combinations of loan types, terms, and lender programs; a buyer’s exact rate is customized to their specific situation. The daily Rate Ranges give you a reliable baseline, but we always run the actual scenario to give your clients an honest, precise, personalized quote.
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Implied Probabilities (BoC)
Next meeting
Sept 2nd, 2026
Odds of move: 3%
Implied move: -25 bps
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Following meeting
Oct 28, 2026
Odds of move: 19%
Implied move: +25 bps
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Market-implied chances of a Bank of Canada rate move at the next two scheduled meetings, with the implied change in basis points. Derived from overnight index swap pricing. As of August 28th , 2026.
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Collaborative Marketing Resources
The Upsizer Smart Move Campaign
A ready-to-run client campaign for move-up buyers: a five-email sequence plus supporting pieces that walk a homeowner through the move-up decision — the idea, the math, a client story, and a soft introduction to mortgage planning. Built for you to deploy to your own database, end to end.
Click here to learn more →
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Michael Friedman, Mortgage Broker , Dominion Lending Centres – A Better Way. Licensed in BC and Alberta.
604-657-1684 · michael@michaelfriedmanamp.com · michaelfriedmanamp.com
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